Give it up... Skiing's the future 8)Dshenberger wrote:Some of the issues I was having on the board were: needing to initiate turns with my body, FALLING (a lot!), lack of trust, not able to keep my weight forward.
Magic Numbers all skiers should know!
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It is time to rebuild my deleted (by error) reply. An why now? Because Pavel is starting to give the answer away even more clearly. Yes Ellistine I saw that too!!!
The Pavel Index is as he has "suggested" a way to list a bunch of data in a way that is easy to understand.
Pavel tests skis - we all know this. His has shouted for us to recognize this in the last clue ... "test reply". He is at his computer puzzelled on how to show us the answer without showing us the answer!
He tests skis for all level of skiers based on several criteria and options. He then reports on his findings in a way where the interested skier may receive his suggestions and recommendations. There are so many skis out there that for the first time buyer and even the "seasoned" buyer it can be like buying a house - a "daunting mind numbing" experience.
So if we use the Pavel Index we will save money and time and end up with a ski suitable to our ability and needs.... we will be confident and sleep well.
Now for that number we must realize that we are all different and must therefore realize that my magic number will differ from Dean's or for Ellistine's of from Agusl's. Our ability is something Pavel doesn't know until he skis with us. His index rates the ski and conditions of application for the percieved ability for a given number.
So the magic number is 5 and it's meaning is the Pavel Index which has sub categories for the different level of skier. When we look for skis we will remember 5 as being the PI and when we have this index we will purchase skis confidently. We will get the best deal because the ski will suit us and be safe for our ability.
I'm still reaching ... but it has been a long 2 weeks!!
More to come .... this is getting like an eBay aution close!!
I did show Pavel a set of bindings I bought through eBay and a good price .. and I was proud of this ... hmmmm another hint ???
Mike
:roll:
I think I have knocked the best parts of the thought right out of my mind from all the banging on the forehead ... :(
But here goes for the 5th number.
This 5th number is used in conjunction with the Pavel Index. The Pavel Index is a list of the test results through his own "secret" method of Multiple Comparisons . It includes all the parameters of the ski ( flex, sidecut, radius, weight, length, and all the physical elements we base our selection upon) for comparision in different catageories then the index presents the findings in a ranking system as related to skier's ability. Now come November we are getting into high gear and preparing for the new season (even though we should have done this in April) We are studying the reviews and ski guides. In order to plan in a practical and realistic means for real situations we use the 95th percentile as a guide for ski selection. This is a good number to use for planning so that we can ensure we have what's needed for 95% of the time. In my "research" I found this: " ... 95 is a magic number used (in networking) because you have to plan for the most of the time case...."
Therefore I'm saying we use 95 to calulate the ranking of the best of ski as set out in the Pavel Index. We then take from the PI those ranked skis for our first choice list. We find the skis ranked in this percentile by the equation; R = .01P (N + 1) where R is the ranking of the sampled ski on Pavel's index; P is the 95% magic number value; N is the number of skis Pavel has sampled, reviewed and ranked in his Index. His index is like the ski guides we study in November as we really start thinking about skiing.
So 95 is my 5th magic number .... for now at least. It is all statiistics based on lots of sampling and the way Pavel may have conducted his "Multiple Comparisions by Rerandomization tests". It was amoung the first of the hints. It is not that we are part of the 95% of skiers it is that we will be part of the 5% that are above ...
And that's enough damage for one day.
:wink:
Mike
Ohhh, careful Ellistine. Isn't it better to have an open mind and an open skill set so that we can tackle anything we put our mind to? About 6 or 7 years ago I first read Pavel's wise offerings on another ski site. He had mentioned that he frequented a certain hill in Canada. This hill posted a "daily picture" and one day (almost at season's end) the picture was of a man and a lady. The man resembled the description Pavel had offered of himself in the vaguest of terms. The man in the picture was clutching a snowboard. My first reaction or thought was "Could this be the great Pavel of whom I had been reading The Pavel with skiing techinique and tuning tips?" But he had a snowboard !! Couldn't be... say it's not so... So I posted the question on the site I knew he frequented and it turned out to in fact be our great mentor in the springtime picture. These were the days when I was asking if were better to wax the skis with red candle wax or white candle wax. A long time ago - well before I was introduced to the Pavel quizz and long before I had the good fortune to meet him.
So skiing may be the way we like to get down the hill right now but who knows what tomorrow might bring! I'd love to try it but the winters are too short and I never tire of the skis!
Mike :lol:
Dean,
Sometimes I haven't time to re-read it myself! Did you go Pimlico for the Preakness? That was a close race at the end!!!
Mike
To Create or Answer a Topic
Started by Pavelski in Ski Chatter 16-May-2007 - 159 Replies
Ellistine
reply to 'Magic Numbers all skiers should know!' posted Jun-2007
Edited 1 time. Last update at 04-Jun-2007
Mike from NS
reply to 'Magic Numbers all skiers should know!' posted Jun-2007
pavelski wrote:test reply
It is time to rebuild my deleted (by error) reply. An why now? Because Pavel is starting to give the answer away even more clearly. Yes Ellistine I saw that too!!!
The Pavel Index is as he has "suggested" a way to list a bunch of data in a way that is easy to understand.
Pavel tests skis - we all know this. His has shouted for us to recognize this in the last clue ... "test reply". He is at his computer puzzelled on how to show us the answer without showing us the answer!
He tests skis for all level of skiers based on several criteria and options. He then reports on his findings in a way where the interested skier may receive his suggestions and recommendations. There are so many skis out there that for the first time buyer and even the "seasoned" buyer it can be like buying a house - a "daunting mind numbing" experience.
So if we use the Pavel Index we will save money and time and end up with a ski suitable to our ability and needs.... we will be confident and sleep well.
Now for that number we must realize that we are all different and must therefore realize that my magic number will differ from Dean's or for Ellistine's of from Agusl's. Our ability is something Pavel doesn't know until he skis with us. His index rates the ski and conditions of application for the percieved ability for a given number.
So the magic number is 5 and it's meaning is the Pavel Index which has sub categories for the different level of skier. When we look for skis we will remember 5 as being the PI and when we have this index we will purchase skis confidently. We will get the best deal because the ski will suit us and be safe for our ability.
I'm still reaching ... but it has been a long 2 weeks!!
More to come .... this is getting like an eBay aution close!!
I did show Pavel a set of bindings I bought through eBay and a good price .. and I was proud of this ... hmmmm another hint ???
Mike
:roll:
Age is but a number.
Edited 2 times. Last update at 04-Jun-2007
Mike from NS
reply to 'Magic Numbers all skiers should know!' posted Jun-2007
I'm going to offer my first carck at the five numbers and if I don't hear from Pavel I'll reload my almost worn out shot gun in time for Thursday.
Think about when we go to buy skis. Possibly we have some ideas what we want or would like. Undeucated ideas until this quizz!).
We go into the store and see all these lovely skis displayed on the wall. Where to start? The loudest coloured ski will grab our attention. Buying is a fulfillment of an emotional need and the marketing experts know this. Make it lively - and they will come. We touch the ski we like the look of, we lift the ski to check the weight, we twist and ben the ski. Are all the factors withing what we think we can handle. We find a length that look good. If we are a bit wiser we will search out all that has been said about the ski through reviews. If Ellistine "tell" us how he liked the Mutix in his review we will try to find out what kind of skier he is to compare him to ourselves. We are searching for an answer to the question "how will it suit our ability?"
And this is what the Pavel Index tells us. It is the most important number we should know as it tells the most useful information in a simple and concise manner. It is the 5th number we must know and as such let's assign it #5
So the numbers:
1. the number is 1 which is the number of ski days between waxing or tune-up in order for the skiing to be the best of magical times.
2.. the skis serial #, like 873420081, which is a unique number and therefore magical in the case of a lost or misplaced ski. It may help with the peace of mind issues. We lock up our skis and head inside hoping someone (with evil intentions) and with a cutting tool didn't watch us. But if they did and follow through we will have our serial # to fall back on.
3. Pavel's home telephone number a number like 1-800- 555 - 5555. Knowing this numbers would certainly have other skiers being "gobsmaked" by our knowledge.
4. I still think 4 is a magic number in that it represents the 4th month, April as the best time to get the best money saving deal.
5. 5 the number I suggest represents the Pavel Index as explained above. The Pavel Index is certainly a study in statistics. He tests a single ski set of a model, but there are hundreds of that model out there. His analysis is based on a confidence interval where the quality control at the manufacturing plant states one thing and Pavel's tests a sample ski to see if he agrees with what they are saying. He is both the committed skier and in this case he is also the "sampler"
And that's it from Nova Scotia on a cloudy Monday afternoon.
Mike
wink: :P
Think about when we go to buy skis. Possibly we have some ideas what we want or would like. Undeucated ideas until this quizz!).
We go into the store and see all these lovely skis displayed on the wall. Where to start? The loudest coloured ski will grab our attention. Buying is a fulfillment of an emotional need and the marketing experts know this. Make it lively - and they will come. We touch the ski we like the look of, we lift the ski to check the weight, we twist and ben the ski. Are all the factors withing what we think we can handle. We find a length that look good. If we are a bit wiser we will search out all that has been said about the ski through reviews. If Ellistine "tell" us how he liked the Mutix in his review we will try to find out what kind of skier he is to compare him to ourselves. We are searching for an answer to the question "how will it suit our ability?"
And this is what the Pavel Index tells us. It is the most important number we should know as it tells the most useful information in a simple and concise manner. It is the 5th number we must know and as such let's assign it #5
So the numbers:
1. the number is 1 which is the number of ski days between waxing or tune-up in order for the skiing to be the best of magical times.
2.. the skis serial #, like 873420081, which is a unique number and therefore magical in the case of a lost or misplaced ski. It may help with the peace of mind issues. We lock up our skis and head inside hoping someone (with evil intentions) and with a cutting tool didn't watch us. But if they did and follow through we will have our serial # to fall back on.
3. Pavel's home telephone number a number like 1-800- 555 - 5555. Knowing this numbers would certainly have other skiers being "gobsmaked" by our knowledge.
4. I still think 4 is a magic number in that it represents the 4th month, April as the best time to get the best money saving deal.
5. 5 the number I suggest represents the Pavel Index as explained above. The Pavel Index is certainly a study in statistics. He tests a single ski set of a model, but there are hundreds of that model out there. His analysis is based on a confidence interval where the quality control at the manufacturing plant states one thing and Pavel's tests a sample ski to see if he agrees with what they are saying. He is both the committed skier and in this case he is also the "sampler"
And that's it from Nova Scotia on a cloudy Monday afternoon.
Mike
wink: :P
Age is but a number.
Edited 2 times. Last update at 04-Jun-2007
Mike from NS
reply to 'Magic Numbers all skiers should know!' posted Jun-2007
I think I have knocked the best parts of the thought right out of my mind from all the banging on the forehead ... :(
But here goes for the 5th number.
This 5th number is used in conjunction with the Pavel Index. The Pavel Index is a list of the test results through his own "secret" method of Multiple Comparisons . It includes all the parameters of the ski ( flex, sidecut, radius, weight, length, and all the physical elements we base our selection upon) for comparision in different catageories then the index presents the findings in a ranking system as related to skier's ability. Now come November we are getting into high gear and preparing for the new season (even though we should have done this in April) We are studying the reviews and ski guides. In order to plan in a practical and realistic means for real situations we use the 95th percentile as a guide for ski selection. This is a good number to use for planning so that we can ensure we have what's needed for 95% of the time. In my "research" I found this: " ... 95 is a magic number used (in networking) because you have to plan for the most of the time case...."
Therefore I'm saying we use 95 to calulate the ranking of the best of ski as set out in the Pavel Index. We then take from the PI those ranked skis for our first choice list. We find the skis ranked in this percentile by the equation; R = .01P (N + 1) where R is the ranking of the sampled ski on Pavel's index; P is the 95% magic number value; N is the number of skis Pavel has sampled, reviewed and ranked in his Index. His index is like the ski guides we study in November as we really start thinking about skiing.
So 95 is my 5th magic number .... for now at least. It is all statiistics based on lots of sampling and the way Pavel may have conducted his "Multiple Comparisions by Rerandomization tests". It was amoung the first of the hints. It is not that we are part of the 95% of skiers it is that we will be part of the 5% that are above ...
And that's enough damage for one day.
:wink:
Mike
Age is but a number.
Edited 1 time. Last update at 05-Jun-2007
Mike from NS
reply to 'Magic Numbers all skiers should know!' posted Jun-2007
ellistine wrote:Give it up... Skiing's the future 8)Dshenberger wrote:Some of the issues I was having on the board were: needing to initiate turns with my body, FALLING (a lot!), lack of trust, not able to keep my weight forward.
Ohhh, careful Ellistine. Isn't it better to have an open mind and an open skill set so that we can tackle anything we put our mind to? About 6 or 7 years ago I first read Pavel's wise offerings on another ski site. He had mentioned that he frequented a certain hill in Canada. This hill posted a "daily picture" and one day (almost at season's end) the picture was of a man and a lady. The man resembled the description Pavel had offered of himself in the vaguest of terms. The man in the picture was clutching a snowboard. My first reaction or thought was "Could this be the great Pavel of whom I had been reading The Pavel with skiing techinique and tuning tips?" But he had a snowboard !! Couldn't be... say it's not so... So I posted the question on the site I knew he frequented and it turned out to in fact be our great mentor in the springtime picture. These were the days when I was asking if were better to wax the skis with red candle wax or white candle wax. A long time ago - well before I was introduced to the Pavel quizz and long before I had the good fortune to meet him.
So skiing may be the way we like to get down the hill right now but who knows what tomorrow might bring! I'd love to try it but the winters are too short and I never tire of the skis!
Mike :lol:
Age is but a number.
Dshenberger
reply to 'Magic Numbers all skiers should know!' posted Jun-2007
Mike,
I can't even take time right now to read all your stuff! I just can't wait to see this number!!
Ellistine,
I live in Maryland, but the Mason-Dixon line runs through our property, so, PA isn't far. :) Oh, and don't worry about me switching to boarding. :) Skiing is much more fun FOR ME!
I can't even take time right now to read all your stuff! I just can't wait to see this number!!
Ellistine,
I live in Maryland, but the Mason-Dixon line runs through our property, so, PA isn't far. :) Oh, and don't worry about me switching to boarding. :) Skiing is much more fun FOR ME!
Mike from NS
reply to 'Magic Numbers all skiers should know!' posted Jun-2007
Dshenberger wrote:Mike,
I can't even take time right now to read all your stuff! I just can't wait to see this number!!
Ellistine,
I live in Maryland, but the Mason-Dixon line runs through our property, so, PA isn't far. :) Oh, and don't worry about me switching to boarding. :) Skiing is much more fun FOR ME!
Dean,
Sometimes I haven't time to re-read it myself! Did you go Pimlico for the Preakness? That was a close race at the end!!!
Mike
Age is but a number.
Mike from NS
reply to 'Magic Numbers all skiers should know!' posted Jun-2007
Ahhhhh, here we are with just a couple of days left in the quizz period. And my mind is still churning. What have we missed ???
The November hint is still of great concern. What happens in November... why the hint and specifically November. As I have concluded the magical thing about November must be the magic that is brought on when we see the reviews of the next year's skis. It is like it is in September when the next year's car models come out. There is something exciting and magical with the anticipation that is in the air. So maybe the "8" clue (if it actually was a hint and the two Novembers do if fact refer to 2008. 2008 will be the next model year for the gear and the news of this equipment is being made known in November (with all the magic this news brings). And this makes 11 another magic number. If 4 can represent April for the best time to buy, why not can't 11 represent November as the time to study the reviews?
Boy that elastic band is just about stretched to the limit!!
What do you all think :?: I'm just about all "reasoned" out.
Mike :)
PS: And again I find I have deleted a post :!: I must strike the "EDIT" button when I think I'm striking the "Quote" button. Guess this new guy isn't quite up on working the site properly yet. What I deleted was just a preamble to my latest "guess" at the 5th number being "95". Nothing lost really. :!:
The November hint is still of great concern. What happens in November... why the hint and specifically November. As I have concluded the magical thing about November must be the magic that is brought on when we see the reviews of the next year's skis. It is like it is in September when the next year's car models come out. There is something exciting and magical with the anticipation that is in the air. So maybe the "8" clue (if it actually was a hint and the two Novembers do if fact refer to 2008. 2008 will be the next model year for the gear and the news of this equipment is being made known in November (with all the magic this news brings). And this makes 11 another magic number. If 4 can represent April for the best time to buy, why not can't 11 represent November as the time to study the reviews?
Boy that elastic band is just about stretched to the limit!!
What do you all think :?: I'm just about all "reasoned" out.
Mike :)
PS: And again I find I have deleted a post :!: I must strike the "EDIT" button when I think I'm striking the "Quote" button. Guess this new guy isn't quite up on working the site properly yet. What I deleted was just a preamble to my latest "guess" at the 5th number being "95". Nothing lost really. :!:
Age is but a number.
Edited 2 times. Last update at 05-Jun-2007
Topic last updated on 07-June-2007 at 21:52