Off to Poland for a bit of skiing next week, hurray, I know its not the most popular place (but it has plenty of gentle slops for my standard of skiing - I usually go for the head first style.
Having naturally visited J2ski site first - which seems to change every few hours - I find myself looking at weather underground, accuweather and others and they are all different
Take Sat 26 Jan the daY I arrive
J2Ski says max temp 2C Mini 0, 5cm of snow
Accuweather says max 2, mini -4 no snow
Weatherunderground max 1 mini -1 snow at night
onet.pl (local weather) max 2 mini -5, 0.7mm of snow and 0.1mm of rain
All the above give different wind forcasts too from 6KMs per hour to 30
So confused!
Snow and Weather Forecasts - who to believe?
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Hi Iceman... temps are at resort level... we plan to add temperature at the top (and wind-chill) shortly.
Hmm, it's "correct" in that, yes, that is what the GFS data was predicting earlier today... but that's changing with every run - as is the Southerly/Westerly extent of the possible snow for this weekend.
In this case, there is a High Pressure system along whose Eastern edge any snow will come - with cold air from the North. The forecast models seem to be having a real hard time predicting where this is going to go. If it moves a little to the East of the current prediction, then the French Alps will see clear weather... a little to the West and there'll be a major snowstorm in the same area.
It could go either way at this point and you might as well toss a coin as look at any of the snow forecast sites... :cry:
Gut feel says this one's going to fizzle out or at least get downgraded but let's hope not.
But that's weather... last week was much more settled, and the snow that fell today in the French Alps was generally very close to what we'd been predicting since the middle of last week.
Are you driving from the UK?
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Started by Mark203 in Snow Forecasts and Snow Reports 22-Jan-2008 - 10 Replies
Mark203 posted Jan-2008
Edited 1 time. Last update at 22-Jan-2008
The Auhof
reply to 'Snow and Weather Forecasts - who to believe?' posted Jan-2008
Hi Mark,
Well who indeed?
We print off a J2Ski weather report for our guests each morning and it's very interesting to see how wildly things change from about 6 or 7 days out to how it is on the day.
Take next Sunday (27th Jan) for example, the forecast at the moment says 55cm 8) (Great! except for our car park which will need a good snow blow!) Yesterday it was only 39cm and I suspect as the week goes on it will fluctuate up and down.
What I can say is that the J2Ski forecasts for "today" are normally fairly accurate. I have used quite a few other sites and not found any that are more accurate than here.
Good luck for your journey!
The Auhof
Well who indeed?
We print off a J2Ski weather report for our guests each morning and it's very interesting to see how wildly things change from about 6 or 7 days out to how it is on the day.
Take next Sunday (27th Jan) for example, the forecast at the moment says 55cm 8) (Great! except for our car park which will need a good snow blow!) Yesterday it was only 39cm and I suspect as the week goes on it will fluctuate up and down.
What I can say is that the J2Ski forecasts for "today" are normally fairly accurate. I have used quite a few other sites and not found any that are more accurate than here.
Good luck for your journey!
The Auhof
www
Life is always better on the sunny side of the hill!
www.auhof.co.uk
Admin
reply to 'Snow and Weather Forecasts - who to believe?' posted Jan-2008
Hi Mark,
Any alpine forecast more than a couple of days out should be taken with a pinch of salt.
Generally speaking, the more dynamic (changeable) the current weather is, the more variable the forecasts will be. Conversely, if conditions are relatively settled then the accuracy of the forecast will usually be good.
AFAIAA, all the weather sites you list (except, possibly, the local Polish one) take their raw data from the same source as us - the Global Forecast System (GFS). GFS is run every 3 to 6 hours (depending on the model).
Most weather sites take a snapshot once a day - we pick up the results several times each day so what you see on j2ski will usually be the result of the latest runs; and it will change several times through the day.
Obvious rule of thumb - if the forecast is changing a lot then there's a change in the weather... 8)
The above notwithstanding, yesterdays GFS runs began to show "a bit of a pasting" in store for parts of Austria this coming weekend... :shock: :D
Fingers crossed, but... it's too far out to be certain as yet.
Any alpine forecast more than a couple of days out should be taken with a pinch of salt.
Generally speaking, the more dynamic (changeable) the current weather is, the more variable the forecasts will be. Conversely, if conditions are relatively settled then the accuracy of the forecast will usually be good.
AFAIAA, all the weather sites you list (except, possibly, the local Polish one) take their raw data from the same source as us - the Global Forecast System (GFS). GFS is run every 3 to 6 hours (depending on the model).
Most weather sites take a snapshot once a day - we pick up the results several times each day so what you see on j2ski will usually be the result of the latest runs; and it will change several times through the day.
Obvious rule of thumb - if the forecast is changing a lot then there's a change in the weather... 8)
The above notwithstanding, yesterdays GFS runs began to show "a bit of a pasting" in store for parts of Austria this coming weekend... :shock: :D
Fingers crossed, but... it's too far out to be certain as yet.
The Admin Man
Iceman
reply to 'Snow and Weather Forecasts - who to believe?' posted Jan-2008
'Max Temp/Min temp'
Where is this? Resort, top of the mountain? I doubt it....but not sure....
How much should I be taking off/adding for the resort/top mountain? :?:
Where is this? Resort, top of the mountain? I doubt it....but not sure....
How much should I be taking off/adding for the resort/top mountain? :?:
The Northern Monkey. Jan'23 Les Arcs
Admin
reply to 'Snow and Weather Forecasts - who to believe?' posted Jan-2008
Iceman wrote:'Max Temp/Min temp'
Where is this? Resort, top of the mountain? I doubt it....but not sure....
How much should I be taking off/adding for the resort/top mountain? :?:
Hi Iceman... temps are at resort level... we plan to add temperature at the top (and wind-chill) shortly.
The Admin Man
Iceman
reply to 'Snow and Weather Forecasts - who to believe?' posted Jan-2008
This website says there is 39cm of snow scheduled to fall on Sunday in Morzine - is this really correct?
I hope it does not fall on saturday when we are driving there :shock:
I hope it does not fall on saturday when we are driving there :shock:
The Northern Monkey. Jan'23 Les Arcs
Admin
reply to 'Snow and Weather Forecasts - who to believe?' posted Jan-2008
Iceman wrote:This website says there is 39cm of snow scheduled to fall on Sunday in Morzine - is this really correct?
Hmm, it's "correct" in that, yes, that is what the GFS data was predicting earlier today... but that's changing with every run - as is the Southerly/Westerly extent of the possible snow for this weekend.
In this case, there is a High Pressure system along whose Eastern edge any snow will come - with cold air from the North. The forecast models seem to be having a real hard time predicting where this is going to go. If it moves a little to the East of the current prediction, then the French Alps will see clear weather... a little to the West and there'll be a major snowstorm in the same area.
It could go either way at this point and you might as well toss a coin as look at any of the snow forecast sites... :cry:
Gut feel says this one's going to fizzle out or at least get downgraded but let's hope not.
But that's weather... last week was much more settled, and the snow that fell today in the French Alps was generally very close to what we'd been predicting since the middle of last week.
Are you driving from the UK?
The Admin Man
Admin
reply to 'Snow and Weather Forecasts - who to believe?' posted Jan-2008
Bugger. It's gone East... :cry:
The Admin Man
Topic last updated on 23-January-2008 at 12:59