Getting Worried about the No Snow Show

GFS is looking interesting for the end of this month and into March... nothing to bet your ranch on (yet) but the famous wiggly lines are getting busy, with precipitation, from around the 25th with a down-trend to the temperatures starting a few days later...

GFS Ensemble plots for Geneva

The temperatures (in the models) have been all over the place but seem to be coming together a little. We just need this High Pressure system to sling its hook; plenty of life left in the season yet methinks.

The Snow God is bound to get bored of lazing on a beach soon...

Do you think you can persuade him to arrive and dump in time for the 25th, rather than make my week in Sauze a cold, dark and wet one?

I had an 8 year gap before starting skiing again last season, ended up taking 4 beginners with us who we tried hard to convince that no this is not the norm, no it's not usual for it to be 13 degrees at the top of the DMC in Flaine and yes we should be trudging thru Les Carroz in the snow not trying to avoid standing on the flowers.

So here I am a year later going back to Les Carroz on 9th March with the same people (clearly not put off) and praying the snow is good.

Thanks for the chart admin, I am now convinced it is going to dump before we go (still won't stop me checking every 5 mins though).

I had completely forgotten how stressful waiting to go skiing is.

AllyK, I think you should take your chances, because this year could be the last decent year we will see. It looks like the disaster of last year is very quickly going to become the norm.

Not many people realize but at the end of last summer (2007), the amount of Arctic sea that usually melts each summer increased by a massive 25% from previous records. Projections by the IPCC had suggested we would see it with an ice free summer in about 80 to 100 years. This has now been revised to within 5 years time. It also turns about that it is now estimated that 80% of the sea ice is gone, because most of the melting has taken place at the base and it is far thinner now, thereby accounting for the figure and also making it easier to break up and melt.

This flip-over in albedo or reflectivity means it is largely unstoppable and the water evaporating from the Arctic ocean during the summer will allow a lot of heat to be transferred to Greenland and accelerate the already record breaking melting there.

We are quite simply well into positive feedback territory and my advice to all skiers is get as much skiing as possible now, because things are warming up much faster than even the most pessimistic projects.

See for example:
http://www.nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/20071001_pressrelease.html
Forecast to 2014....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2007/08/09/eaclim109.xml

Well well well. 41cm of snow forecast for Sauze early next week. I assume this means that other resorts across the region will also be blessed with more snow, much needed too.

Perfect timing.

Hmmm, ok everyone... DON'T LOOK AT THE FORECAST!

The wiggly lines are getting a right wobble on, (DO NOT) check the Geneva GFS ensemble from the 25th onward...

If you were to look (which you're not) you'd see a succession of some fairly big lumps of precipitation going right out from the 25th through the first week of March. Temperature is falling too... possibly useful amounts of snow down to 1500m next week but maybe a bit soggy below 2000m.

Let's see what this afternoon's update brings... but don't look - or it might get shy and go away...

[i]Going to Les Gets with my wife on Monday 3rd March for 5 days. Can I take it that both the GFS and accuweather both are not wrong and that we can expect rain/snow for the duration. We did Les Houches last year and had wall to wall sunshine all week (early March) whats the score with skiing in snow and what looks like low temps - are they keen on shutting the runs ?

Dean

If huge amounts of snow fall, then any resort will close areas which are prone to avalanche risk. If it's just snowing :D , goggles on and get out there. As you are heading to Les Gets, the good news is, that if it is snowing, the slopes will be largely deserted...apart from the British that is :lol: