Skiing holidays in a changing climate

verbier_ski_bum wrote:

Dave Mac wrote:

There is an assumption of global warming, whereas many scientists are now considering a change towards global cooling.

Usually when people make such ridiculous claims they should at least provide citations.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/03/cooks-97-consensus-disproven-by-a-new-paper-showing-major-math-errors/

There may be still some doubts about whether global warming is taking place, but alpine warming is in full swing. The temperature rise in Austria since ca. 1880 amounts to nearly 2°C, compared to average global warming of 0.85°C



People visiting the alps in winter probably won't notice much difference as the temperature increase has mainly taken place in spring summer and autumn, and the effects on precipitation have been masked by snowmaking and snow management.

Last week I watched a program on the German TV channel 3sat "Der Schnee von Morgen" (The Snow of Tomorrow) in it Michael Manhart the managing director of the Bergbahn Lech - Oberlech who is known in the industry as the 'Snow Pope' said that the quantity of natural snow these days was insignificant, his exact words were "Mickey Mouse"

Locally over the last 25 years I have seen several climate related changes, the Scots pines are dying out at lower altitudes and being replaced by downy oaks which normally grow in submediterranean regions. Most of our drinking water is provided by springs that are fed by snow melt, these are providing less water than they used to.

This week there was a report in the local paper that said that because of the small amount of natural snow we have received this season (30-60% of the average amount) Sass Fee and Zermatt may not be able to open their summer ski areas.

Done. Question regarding skiing in 50 years time is interesting. With current trends, I imagine the industry will have been decimated and will have become a rich person's sport...

There ends my cheery Monday morning post!

bedrock barney wrote:Done. Question regarding skiing in 50 years time is interesting. With current trends, I imagine the industry will have been decimated and will have become a rich person's sport...

There ends my cheery Monday morning post!

I expect to be dead by then so will probably have given up skiing :oops: . The OECD actually did a serious study of this and concluded that resorts below 2000m would probably no longer be able to operate. However, a concern about skiing seems somewhat crass compared with the wider ramifications. If the global warming predictions are correct and the progression continues over that period, skiing will be the least of the world's problems. Even an average 2 degrees increase in global temperatures would wipe out or displace a large proportion of the world's population. For example, most of Bangladesh would be under water while even the likes of East Anglia could find itself uninhabitable :shock:.

Here is a link to the OECD Study http://www.oecd.org/env/cc/climatechangeintheeuropeanalpsadaptingwintertourismandnaturalhazardsmanagement.htm. The full Study has to be bought but there is an Executive Summary available from this page.

I don't think that anyone denies that the climate does not change. It has done so for millions of years. The change has been multi-directional.
However, the proposition is that the change is predominately man made. There are a number of different causes of climate change. One of the most prominent is sun spot activity. It was assumed that this was cyclical, but it looks like this is not the case.

There is a train of thought that SS activity is reducing, and this will have a cooling effect.

Sadly, (for me), I can look BACK 50 years at snow conditions. There is little difference, then and now. The warmest period I can recall was January ~ April 1972, when it did not snow.

You will not find this an any graph or chart. It pre-dated machine snow, and the ski school was in-operational for 3 months.

Oh, and Verbier Ski Bum called my comments "ridiculous". This was a surprise, since I hold VSB in the highest regard. There was no response when I gave the citation asked for. I could have given hundreds of citations.

I am an engineer, and together with many scientists there is a common view that CC is a naturally occurring feature.

Climate change scientists hold a different view, but then, their jobs depend on it. The citation points out that although the CC carbon agreements are based on 97% of CC scientists believing in the man made causal effects, many, many of the scientists quoted subsequently denied holding that view.

Dave Mac wrote:

verbier_ski_bum wrote:

Dave Mac wrote:

There is an assumption of global warming, whereas many scientists are now considering a change towards global cooling.

Usually when people make such ridiculous claims they should at least provide citations.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/03/cooks-97-consensus-disproven-by-a-new-paper-showing-major-math-errors/

I meant a reputable source. Anthony Watts is a colledge drop-out and a TV weather man. It's cute of him to have a blog, but he is talking out of his backside. His blog is widely known as LOLWUWT.

Dave Mac wrote:Oh, and Verbier Ski Bum called my comments "ridiculous". This was a surprise, since I hold VSB in the highest regard. There was no response when I gave the citation asked for. I could have given hundreds of citations.

I am an engineer, and together with many scientists there is a common view that CC is a naturally occurring feature.

Climate change scientists hold a different view, but then, their jobs depend on it. The citation points out that although the CC carbon agreements are based on 97% of CC scientists believing in the man made causal effects, many, many of the scientists quoted subsequently denied holding that view.

Being an engineer doesn't make you a scientist.