Anybody got any snow-dice?

Interesting things happening in the snow forecast...

Looks like a fair bit of precipitation this weekend but with a freezing level in the region of 2,000 metres (boo) for most areas. Localised falls could push the snow much lower, however, as cold air comes through.

The more interesting event is around the 4th though - 10 degree drop in temperature right across the alps, with precipitation too (oo oo oo). GFS has already moved this back a couple of days, but seems pretty sure about it now.

After that, the forecast goes haywire so goodness only knows what the second week of March will bring!

Check the GFS Ensemble for Geneva for a classic example of the wiggly lines going wibble-wobble wildly beyond the 7th!

We'll be watching the next forecast runs with mucho interest... 8)

Should I be looking at Geneva or Vienna for Northern Italian Alsps? - Passo Tonale?

Liking this alot looks like a snowy week for me in Morzine.

Cheers for the info.

The weather here is unsettled, it's 6' outside but cloud is rolling in and out although it doesn't really seem likely to snow soon. Until this week or so conditions were quite good off-piste, some reasonable snow but very, very stable and some routes were in good condition.

But, avalanche danger has suddenly gone up hugely due to the increased humidity and temperatures, we're seeing full depth glide avalanches and fractures are appearing all over the place. The local forecast suggests that we're seeing risk level one in the mornings going to level three during the day, the window of low risk is too small to do too much sadly.

Hopefully next week as the final Feb' half term people leave the snow will arrive and we'll get a good run through the month of March.

jclegg19 wrote:Liking this alot looks like a snowy week for me in Morzine.

Cheers for the info.

sadly I think the odd's of enough snow falling to rescue lower sections of the portes du soleil are pretty low. They're down to grass near the stations and I doubt many of those return runs will last the week. :(

ise wrote:we're seeing full depth glide avalanches and fractures are appearing all over the place.

Nasty... that sounds like Spring!

Hopefully the forecast dip in temperature will stabilise things again, though I guess the cold needs to be sustained to penetrate the snowpack? Otherwise a thick frozen crust on top of a wet base could be extremely treacherous...

Definitely a time for caution - digging the odd pit or two could be interesting to see how the layers develop; did you fancy some spade-work next Wednesday? 8)

Admin wrote:

ise wrote:we're seeing full depth glide avalanches and fractures are appearing all over the place.

Nasty... that sounds like Spring!

Hopefully the forecast dip in temperature will stabilise things again, though I guess the cold needs to be sustained to penetrate the snowpack? Otherwise a thick frozen crust on top of a wet base could be extremely treacherous...

Definitely a time for caution - digging the odd pit or two could be interesting to see how the layers develop; did you fancy some spade-work next Wednesday? 8)

Wednesday?

Just for interest and to tie my previous two comments together, the ground temperature outside is around +1.6' under about 40cms of snow at 1600m, that's on snow density at over 250kg/m3. That means increased risk of glide avalanches and for those lower stations, the exposed ground's now becoming warm enough that snow settling on it is going to be an issue.

On many slopes the stability of the last few weeks is locked in for a while and when temperatures stabilise again we'll have more good conditions. That said, ultimately the trend of any snow-pack is to stabilise so it's generally always optimistic anyway. Some of the north slopes (ie here) have had large facetted crystals, they skied well but might be issue if they get buried.

ise wrote:Wednesday?

Fingers crossed but it should have cooled off and be snowing in Zinal by then... 8)