Accuracy of Forecasts

I have been skiing for almost 50 years. When I worked for the ski school, my boss, the head instructor, would confidently state, on a Monday morning, that he had seen three crows, flying upside down, east to west. This was the sign, that it would snow on Wednesday, at 10.00am.
Sure enough, at 9.59am, on the Wednesday, small flakes started, rapidly building up.
Unfortunately, my boss retired, and I had to evolve my own method. I have already posted this method in November 2008 ~

"It's actually very easy.
You look up your resort report on J2ski, and then cross check with the local tourist office web site forecast. They are never the same so add them and divide by two to get the mean.
Then Multiply by two, and separately divide by two. Write both results down.
Also, timeshift by two days in each direction.
And there you have it."

This model has now been adopted by most agencies in Austria and Switzerland. France and Italy have now both devoted resources in investigation teams.
Bulgaria has yet to respond.

Well I suppose I should have my tuppence worth , I tend not to use J2ski forecasts as I have found them unreliable over the years .... I'm not sure why

I guess we should think of snow in the same way we do about rain.
Mostly it's showers rather than wall to wall rain (or in this case snow) Even on the flat it's hard to be certain where the showers will hit exactly other than a few minutes ahead on satellite imagery.

Add in the effect of mountains on air flow and it becomes very difficult to be sure more than a very short time in advance. Yes you can predict that some parts will get snow but exactly which part of a resort not far in advance.